Indias Terror Stance Vexes Obama Amid Voter Ire At Pakistan

February 23rd, 2009|Editor
Congress

Indias ruling Congress Party, which heeded U.S. calls to avoid threatening its neighbor after Novembers Mumbai terrorist attack, is heading for elections that might push it from office. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, which accuses Congress of a “soft approach” toward terrorism, says India should consider blockading Pakistans main port and severing ties unless the government extradites 20 suspected militants.

A less cooperative India would hamper Obamas effort to keep Pakistans army focused on fighting the Taliban and other guerrillas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

“The BJP is more hard-line now than when it was in power,” says Gareth Price, head of the Asia program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. “Theres no question they would increase the pressure on Pakistan, and that would complicate matters for the Obama administration.” The likeliest outcome, he says, may be a weak coalition government led by one of the two large parties and including some of Indias burgeoning small parties.

This month, Pakistan ceded effective control of the Swat Valley, 250 kilometers (155 miles) northwest of Islamabad, in a truce with local Taliban. The Talibans gains threaten to further destabilize Afghan President Hamid Karzai — and diminish pressure on al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, whos believed to be hiding in the region.

Listen and Learn

The U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, visited all three countries last week to, in his words, “listen and learn.”

Holbrooke said last week on PBSs NewsHour program that the administration was “troubled and confused” by the truce in Swat. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have criticized Karzais government, which Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said last month is “plagued by limited capacity and widespread corruption.”

Obama on Feb. 18 ordered 17,000 more U.S. troops into Afghanistan as a first step in a new strategy likely to be unveiled late next month. By then, Indias election will be in full swing: Voting in the worlds most populous democracy is to take place in several phases and must be completed by May.

Congress enters the campaign without history on its side: No ruling party has won re-election after serving a full term since Indira Gandhi led Congress to victory in 1971. Since the start of 2007, the party had lost ground in nine of 11 state elections, before winning three out of six late last year.

Leadership Conundrum

It isnt even clear wholl lead the party. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, 76, was hospitalized last month for cardiac bypass surgery and had to reduce his workload. If he isnt able to carry the party banner, the succession is murky.

“Rahul Gandhi is not ready,” political scientist and commentator Harish Khare wrote in the Hindu, a national newspaper, on Jan. 30. Congress, he said, should avoid “pitchforking the young man into the race.”

The campaign comes at a time when the global recession has crippled Indian exports, cutting growth in Asias third-largest economy to its slowest pace since 2003.

Job Losses

India has lost 1 million jobs, the government said Jan. 29, and companies such as Bangalore-based Gokaldas Exports Ltd., the countrys largest clothing exporter, predict more firings. Meanwhile, an accounting scandal at Satyam Computer Services Ltd. has undermined Indias appeal to foreign investors.

Indias benchmark Sensex stock index tumbled 50 percent in the past year, led by declines in Tata Motors Ltd. and property developer DLF Ltd. The rupee fell 24 percent against the dollar in the same period.

“The economy is the key to a very tough fight for Congress,” says Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst at Delhi University. A nationwide poll last week by Indias CNN-IBN television network found 32 percent of respondents named the economy as the main election issue, compared with 21 percent who cited security and terrorism. No margin of error was given.

India, with a population of 1.1 billion, will elect its lower house of parliament for a five-year term. Thirty-seven parties sit in the current chamber; since the early 1990s, governments have been coalitions headed by Congress or its main rival, the BJP, with smaller parties playing an increasing role.

Source