Ensign Resignation Would Set Up Nevada Scramble
Once viewed as a rising star of the conservative right with presidential potential, Ensign confessed in June to having an affair with campaign staffer, Cindy Hampton, the wife of a top aide in his Senate office.
Since then, revelations of nearly $100,000 paid to the couple by Ensigns parents and claims by Doug Hampton, his mistress husband, that Ensign improperly set him up in a lobbying job have led to a preliminary ethics inquiry and a request for a Justice Department criminal probe.
Ensign isnt up for re-election until 2012 and theres no movement afoot to oust him from the seat before then. But an earlier exit could have a domino effect going into next Novembers general election and beyond as candidates jockey for position or rethink their aspirations.
“Were in unchartered territory, we dont do this very often,” said Fred Lokken, political scientist at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno. “Timing will be everything.”
If he stepped down before the close of candidate filings in March 2010, his seat would be subject to an open casting call heading into Nevadas June primary election.
If he were to resign after the filing deadline, state Republican and Democratic central committees would nominate candidates to appear on the November ballot. Election officials were researching how the scenario would apply to minor political parties.
In either instance, Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons could appoint a temporary replacement to fill the void and ensure that Nevada gets its two votes in the Senate during the interim.
Such an appointment could be an advantage going into the November election, said David Damore, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
“It would obviously depend on who the appointee is,” Damore said. Someone perceived as a political lackey might be scalded by voter backlash.
Gibbons, suffering from low voter approval exacerbated by a bitter, public divorce and accusations of assault by a Las Vegas cocktail waitress, has said he wont appoint himself to Ensigns Senate seat, a move allowed by Nevadas constitution. Hes also said he wouldnt appoint former U.S. District Judge Brian Sandoval, his main re-election rival in next years GOP gubernatorial primary.
But he could change his mind if the timing is right and his own political plans dont pan out, Lokken said. Should he lose the primary or general election and find himself a lame duck, Gibbons could conceivably appoint himself to fill the last two years of Ensigns term.
Whoever is sworn in as governor in January 2011 would appoint someone to fill out the Senate term if Ensign relinquishes his seat after then, an appointment that would give the incumbent a nearly two-year head start on retaining the seat in 2012.
Other possible Republican appointees, according to party strategists, include former state GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, the son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Both are seeking Senate Majority Leader Harry Reids seat.
Reid is running for a fifth term next year.
Former Rep. Jon Porter, who lost to Democrat Dina Titus in 2008, also is mentioned as a possible Senate appointee.
But Republican strategists say Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., would be a front-runner. Heller was considered a leading contender to run against Reid before Heller announced his intent this summer to seek re-election to his own seat instead.
Heller cited the Ensign scandal as one reason he did not challenge Reid, saying he would have needed Ensigns help to deflect attacks in what surely would be rough and tumble race.