Kennedys Fatality May Spark Mad Scramble For Senate Replacement
Kennedy, 77, who died late Tuesday night according to a statement from his family, had been a U.S. senator since November, 1962. His brother, the late President John F. Kennedy, held the seat from 1953 to December 1960.
The usual fight for a prized Senate seat is further complicated this time by two unusual issues. Massachusetts Democrats, not wanting to let a Republican governor appoint a senator, changed the law in 2004 to require a special election within 145 to 160 days of a vacancy.
In a letter to state legislators, Kennedy asked that the governor be allowed to name an interim senator. The governor is a Democrat, which would guarantee any appointee would help maintain the partys 60-vote majority.
The request is critical to maintaining Democratic votes on health-care legislation that is moving through Congress and that has been a lifelong pursuit for Kennedy.
In the letter, dated July 2 and released Aug. 20, Kennedy also supported a special election. Such a contest likely will dramatically increase the number of competitors and create a political “domino” that could reach the precinct level of the Bay State, says Fred Bayles, director of Boston Universitys statehouse program.
“It has a profound impact on Massachusetts politics and elected office,” he said. “Everythings going to fall down because everyone will start moving around either jockeying for his seat or for the other positions that could open up.”
Family Members
The other issue is whether a member of the Kennedy family will try to claim the seat. The senators wife, Victoria, has told friends she doesnt want the seat, the Boston Globe reported. Other relatives, including Kennedys nephew Joseph P. Kennedy, a former congressman, havent indicated their intentions.
The Kennedys have helped make incumbency a de facto lifetime proposition, making openings extremely rare. This opportunity, combined with the current law, will encourage a broad array of potential contestants, from relatively new House members such as Stephen Lynch, 54, to congressional outsiders such as Attorney General Martha Coakley, 56.
It isnt clear whether Massachusetts lawmakers in the House such as Barney Frank, 69, who heads the Financial Services Committee and Edward Markey, 63, who heads the Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment, would give up their powerful chairmanships to become a freshman senator.
Too Young
Since then, the younger Kennedy has helped shape the national discourse on everything from wars to health care and led the transformation of Massachusetts to one of the most Democratic and liberal states in the country.
In Massachusetts, 92 percent of state legislators are Democrat, and the congressional delegation is Democrat, as are all statewide officials except the treasurer, who has no party affiliation.
At the heart of the election battle is the 2004 Massachusetts law requiring a special election. When John Kerry, the junior senator from Massachusetts, was running for president, the governor was Mitt Romney, 62, a Republican. The law at the time empowered the governor to appoint a replacement.
Changed Law
In July of that year, the Democrat-controlled legislature changed the law to require a special election to keep Romney from appointing a Republican. Then Kerry lost the election to incumbent President George W. Bush, 63.
In his July 2 letter, Kennedy said he supports the current law and asked that Governor Deval Patrick choose an interim replacement who has made “an explicit personal commitment not to become a candidate in the special election.”
A special election opens the door for a political free-for- all because any House member who wants to run can avoid a conflict with the next official congressional election in 2010. Many also expect that Massachusetts will lose a House seat during the next Census, providing another incentive.