Republican Turmoil Hits Early Presidential States
Now they arent sure what to think in the early presidential voting states.
“You have to wonder who will be the standard-bearer for social conservatives in 2012,” said veteran Republican strategist Bob Haus. “If they are going to talk the talk, they better walk the walk. Anyone who comes in and claims that mantle had better be pretty clean.”
Admissions of extramarital affairs by South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Nevada Sen. John Ensign would seem to have ended any presidential ambitions. Palin is popular among the social conservatives who dominate Iowas Republican caucuses and could get a huge boost from the state should she seek the nomination, but her resignation complicates things.
“She has some work to do to convince people they can trust her,” Haus said. “Unfortunately its all self-inflicted.”
Maintaining good standing in Iowa is especially important if Palin seeks the presidency because her stances line up well with the state partys social conservatism. In contrast, Republicans in New Hampshire – home to the nations first primary – tend to be more fiscally conservative and socially moderate.
Polls on possible 2012 candidates have shown Palin behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, likely due in part to the states preference for more moderate candidates, said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Smith said Palin could have a chance there in 2012, but didnt help herself by quitting her job.
“I dont think any way you can square it can be seen as good for her right now – it may turn out to be good down the road – but right now shes in a difficult spot,” he said.
Presidential primaries and caucuses may be years off, but Iowa Christian Alliance head Steve Scheffler said Palins resignation has left many people so confused she needs to act quickly if planning to be in the 2012 mix.
Winning in Iowa requires courting state politicians and activists, even when a candidate is not facing the kind of uncertainty thats enveloped Palin.
“I think she has to come to Iowa and convince people she can be a leader,” Scheffler said. “Shes going to have to prove that to caucus-going Iowans, and she has to come to Iowa over and over again.”
New Hampshire is a bit less of a pressure cooker.
Palin, Ensign and Sanford all had strong potential followings in Iowa, where the party has become increasingly controlled by social conservatives even as overall voting has become more Democratic. Barack Obama easily won the state last year, and Democrats hold the governorship, both legislative chambers and three of five congressional districts.
Sioux City businessman Bob Vander Plaats, who is seeking the GOP nomination for governor, said conservative Republicans can recover – but in a state where presidential politics is a never-ending sport, recent events havent helped their cause.
“For conservatives to win again, they need to be trusted,” Vander Plaats said. “I dont know if it damages the brand, but it means theres a little bit of sorting out that needs to be done.”
Theres no indication the recent upheaval will cause conservatives to lose their grip on Iowas state party, especially in caucus politics dominated by activists rather than more casual voters who only show up at general election time.
Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, of Chariton, said hes confident voters will evaluate Republicans on issues rather than bombshells.