Republicans are expected win majority governorships stake

June 4th, 2010|Sasha James
State

Republicans are expected to win a majority of the 37 governorships at stake in the midterm elections, giving them a possible edge in next years once-a-decade fight over redrawing congressional district boundaries and in the 2012 presidential election.

Amid a growing anti-incumbent and anti-establishment voter mood, the elections could sweep more than 25 new state chief executives into officethe most in modern history.

Were going to get a new wave of leadership at the state level and there is no doubt it will impact the country for a decade, said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association.

President Barack Obamas Democrats are fighting historic voting trends that go against the party in power in the White House. Typically, the party in power loses seats in Congress and governorships during a presidents first term.

Republicans, who now hold 24 governors offices to 26 for Democrats, are expected to gain at least two more for a majority. Their goal is to pick up at least six governorships to go along with big Republican gains expected in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

Huge budget deficits and a sour economy have forced some states to cut services or raise taxes but the anger at Washington that has fueled the conservative Tea Party movement is not as big a factor in state-level politics.

SEEKING RETURN TO OFFICE

Only seven incumbent governors in each party are running for re-election, but five former governors are trying to reclaim their old offices despite the anti-insider voter mood.

Democrats Jerry Brown in California, Roy Barnes in Georgia and John Kitzhaber in Oregon, and Republicans Terry Branstad in Iowa and Bob Ehrlich in Maryland are hoping voters are looking for proven performers.

At the end of the day, voters dont just want a new face, they want a face that can solve problems, said Kitzhaber, who served as Oregon governor from 1995 to 2003.

Its clearly much easier to do that as governor. There is much more vehement anger at the federal government than at the state level, at least in Oregon, he said.

The two parties face a fairly even political map in the 37 governors races on the ballot, with Republicans defending 19 and Democrats 18.

Democratic retirements in the Republican states of Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee offer good chances for Republican pickups. Republicans also have strong shots to reclaim offices amid the stumbling economies in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin.

The election season is about pocketbook issues and if you look at the vulnerable Democrats, many have raised taxes or driven up debt or not delivered on creating jobs, said Mike Schrimpf, a Republican Governors Association spokesman.

Its about more than anti-incumbency, he said. Governors races are about how the incumbent has governed.

Democrats hope to take advantage of Republican retirements in Hawaii, Vermont, Connecticut, Minnesota and California, while taking aim at incumbents in Texas, Nevada and Arizona.

DEMOCRATIC ADVICE STAY LOCAL

Daschle said Republican criticism of the Democratic-led Congress was less relevant at the state level, although Democrats could benefit in a few states from primary battles where Tea Party candidates are involved.

There is a huge disconnect between what Republicans are saying at the national level and what voters are seeing at the state level, Daschle said.

One of the pieces of advice weve been giving our candidates this year is stay local, stay focused on jobs and dont get drawn into these federal debates about what is happening in D.C. Its not germane, he said.

Both parties expect to pour record amounts of money, more than 40 million each, into the races this year given the broad implications for redistricting and the 2012 election.

Most governors play a role in the state-by-state process of redrawing congressional lines every 10 years after the national census to ensure each House district represents roughly the same amount of people.

The highly political process, which begins next year, features intensive party maneuvering to inflict damage on opponents by making a district more reliably Republican or Democratic.

It elevates the significance of the races in this cycle, Daschle said. You are talking about long-term structural changes that could last a decade, so the short-term and long-term impact of these races is unprecedented.

Parties also seek the advantage offered by a sitting governor in years with a presidential race. Governors typically raise big money and muster a ready pool of volunteers for national candidates.

Republicans said potential pickups in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado could help in the 2012 White House race.

That would make Obamas re-election prospects that much more difficult, Schrimpf said. A popular governor can point to his own policies and use the state party to help the national nominee.

Editing by David Alexander and Bill Trott source